Work-package 5

Assessing Effects of Current & Potential future Climate Vulnerability

Work Package Leader: Dr Barry O’Dwyer

Duration: 4 months (August 2017- November 2017)

WP5 will work in conjunction with local, regional and national level stakeholders to assess current and, through scenario analyses (employing results from WP3, WP4 and available information on future socio‐economic development), possible future effects of key urban climatic impacts and associated vulnerabilities. An impact net approach will be adopted where first‐order effects are first identified, followed by second‐order effects and a subsequent assessment of third‐order and regionally/nationally‐relevant effects.

5.1 Assessing Current Effects (top‐down and bottom‐up approaches)

Utilising outputs from WP3 and WP4, stakeholder opinion and expert judgement will be employed to assess the current effects of climate impacts and vulnerabilities. Importantly, and in order to confirm qualitative assessments of effects, quantitative data identified through WP2, will be collated to assess the validity/calibrate stakeholder and expert judgement.

5.2 Assessing Possible Future Effects (top‐down and bottom‐up approaches)

Employing outputs from WP3 and WP4, modelled projected future impacts and key vulnerabilities in particular, a ‘what‐if’ scenario analysis will be undertaken to scope the cascading effects of projected changes in climate impacts and vulnerabilities at local, regional and national levels. Importantly, this scenario analysis will also employ existing information on future socio‐economic development pathways for the area under investigation, e.g. Dublin City Development Plan 2016‐2022; CSO Population projections.

5.3 Economic Assessment of Current and Potential Future Climate Changes, Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Impacts of future climate changes, including disruptions to economic activity and services provision, will be economically assessed. In combination with stakeholder judgement of socio‐economic impacts, this assessment will employ existing information on the current economic implications of extreme weather events and gradual climate changes as a basis for estimating future economic losses due to changing climatic conditions, impacts and vulnerabilities.

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